Support for WGA tactics are diminishing

Recently, I heard the other side. I posted earlier this month that I reluctantly supported the WGA and I am more reluctant today after hearing the other side of the story. The so called below the line WORKING employees who are put out of work by this strike right before the holidays is unnecessarily cruel. With or without a contract, this strike could have waited until after the holidays. Given that apparently 48% of writers are unemployed at any given time (WGA's own statistics), that means that of the 12,000 or so members, almost 6,000 have no immediate effect to a strike, and when you consider that there are definitely more upper middle class writers than are upper middle class below the line NON UNION workers, I can only say that I think the timing was ill conceived.

Also, as more details of the negotiation sticking points have been revealed, I am not impressed with writers whose TV script base hasn't diminished wanted to be compensated for ad supported internet streams a few days after its original airing. What I read is that the producers were offering six weeks; I would have insisted they wait for the show's season ends before being able to collect.

Listen, I'm not saying the studios and producers aren't being a bit greedy, I think they probably are, but who invested in the technology that allows for streaming show episodes? Who ultimately takes the risk that what is written will generate profitable revenue? That's the producers and studios. I've read that the studios and AMPTP really wants to scrap the residuals system in lieu of some other form of payment. Now I'm not naive, I'm sure if they can figure out how to make it look good on the surface, but ultimately end up benefitting them over the WGA members in the long run, they would consider that ideal, however, I also would like to see some other system explored that replaces the administrative nightmare that is residuals with something that accomplishes the same goal. I will post my suggestions at a later date.

Listen up WGA writers, I support the notion that you should be paid for future profitability of your work, no question there, but I urge you to consider what, of internet media distribution, has REPLACED by TV viewership and the resulting ad revenue and what is actually an expansion and start from there with your negotiations.

Congratulations Pam Melroy

Congratulations Pamela Melroy, on your successful landing. Don't tell me that in America you can't be whatever or whoever you want to be when we have a woman commanding a space shuttle. I realize that some have more to overcome than others, but Shuttle Commander Pamela Melroy just successfully landed Discovery at 10:01am PST and did so smoothly and safely.

Congrats Ms. Melroy.

NOW why are we in IRAQ?

First we were told that the IRAQ invasion was to rid them of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD's). Well, we now know that there wasn't any. Then, we were told it was to liberate the IRAQI people from a brutal dictator. Okay, well, they are liberated from a brutal dictator, no matter that they are now under the rule of insurgents and terrorists, they're at least liberated from a brutal dictator. Finally, we were told that it was to bring stability to that region; however, I cannot remember the region ever being so unstable in my lifetime.

Notwithstanding the claim that we are now winning in IRAQ, we are losing miserably if in fact the current objective (of our ever CHANGING reason(s) for going in and being in IRAQ) is to stabilize the region.

Turkey is being threatened by the Northern Iraqi Kurdish people and Turkey is threatening to invade. Pakistan is under Marshall Law. Iran is claiming they will have Nukes in about a year and I'd suggest that North Korea is quietly becoming a dangerous, DANGEROUS place. Keep your head in the sand if you wish, regular people in middle eastern countries are most likely blaming the US invasion of IRAQ for the instability. It WILL create a whole new breed of children, who hate Americans and blame Americans for their problems, ready to be suicide bombers and unfortunately, they won't be as wrong as they were in the past.

I am not one of the extremists who believes we should just cut and run (although I wish we could), I just don't think it's fair or just for us to go in, tear up the IRAQI's country, then split. However, I can "unsafely" say, that I can only HOPE that I will live long enough to see the damage that George W. Bush and company has done to the country and the world repaired.

US Recession Warning!

I cringe every time I hear pundits say that the economy is strong, stronger than ever. Not because I think they're lying, but because I KNOW they're wrong. I know I'm not the only former upper middle class individual who's struggling, and like so many others, I look around and wonder, why is there so many suffering financially if the economy is so great?

Either the experts are not experts, or they're hyping the economy to keep consumer confidence up. Either way, they are blind if they can't see the handwriting on the wall. After reading this post, I'm certain you'll see it too.

THE US WILL BE IN A RECESSION BY THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2008.

Now here are the factors that a rank amateur like me can see, that the experts don't see, at least not collectively. Different economists see SOME of the different pieces, but here is the complete roadmap.

1. This will be a dismal holiday shopping season and we know this will affect corporate earnings and payroll (no big revelation here)
   
   1. Painful gas prices will pinch consumer disposable income
      
   2. Painful gas prices will increase merchant cost, which will be passed to already pinched consumers
      
   3. The dismal exchange rate of the dollar will further increase merchant cost of merchandise
      
2. This will lead to a Wall Street sell off, which will panic both corporations and employees.
   
3. Employees will be rightfully panicked because this will lead to widespread layoffs
   
4. Employees who remain employed will be paying more for their employer sponsored health plans (they're learning this now, which will further depress holiday spending)
   
5. Layoffs in the retail and financial sector will lead the way
   
6. The already depressed entertainment market will be further depressed as the writers' strike continues, pickets will slow this sector
   
7. Mass instability in the Middle East (Pakistan and Iran) will cause holiday travel, particularly air travel to be slower than expected
   

 

All these factors will contribute to the US being in recession by the second quarter of 2008, but the single BIGGEST contributor to the recession will be foreclosed families FINALLY being removed from their homes. You see, it takes approximately three to six months and in some instances up to a year, for someone to actually have to LEAVE their home following foreclosure. During all these months of foreclosure, homeowners don't have to pay their mortgages and that money, while devastating the financial and credit markets, are currently being invested back into Consumer Staples and other retail items. As these families move from their homes and have to move into rental properties, that excess income that they had from not having a mortgage will evaporate. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the US economy.

 

Don't be fooled by smoke and mirrors, the economy is NOT strong, this will not be a soft landing, it will be a crash landing with mass economic casualties, mark my words.

Reluctantly Supporting WGA

For the last two months or so, I've been asking around as to WHY the producers and studios don't just turn their backs on the WGA and move on without them. Sure it will take a while to re-staff with talented NON-UNION writers and begin again, but it's a process and there are PLENTY of willing and hungry takers I'd bet. Well as the strike unfolded, I realized that this is exactly what they might have in mind, and I'm not happy about that.

It's been a long time since I've supported a union group against a corporation because generally their demands were inconsistent (substantially richer) with what most workers with comparable skills were getting and because many of the workers themselves had no idea what they were already getting, OR what they were demanding. I found this to be the case with UPS and also with Grocery Workers. I challenge anyone who thinks that the union has their back in these negotiations, ESPECIALLY when they think they have a WIN to take a visit to Detroit, Michigan and see their future.

So then WHY is the Writers Guild so different in my eyes? First, because they don't make more than the average with their skill starting out. Because Entertainment is primarily a speculative business, new writers make entry level wages, and there isn't the same type of SCALE that you have with everyone making the same thing based on years of service. Second, because there isn't steady work for many writers, having a union ties their individual jobs together into a career allowing them to have benefits and retirement plans, something that you have to gain tenure over years to obtain in a regular job. Last, when a grocery cashier leaves their job, the grocery store doesn't continue to benefit from their skill and when a UPS driver leaves, the packages they delivered don't continue to earn money for the company. The fact that studios and producers continue to earn money from the writer's product for years to come begs the question, why shouldn't the writer as well? My take is they should.

So in this rare instance when I support a unions position in a dispute such as this, I'd suggest this strike be settled by giving producers and studios the option to negotiate up front payouts to writers in exchange for future residuals (I only suggest this because the process of paying residuals is inefficient on its face, I've seen this first hand. The massive waste of processing $3.21 checks isn't my thing). It's isn't something that has to be decided up front, but instead based on the first run success of the program. So for example (using a comment I heard from a Lost writer) if first print DVD sales total one million and their cut would be $ .10 cents per DVD, then they can individually negotiate a $250,000 payout forever for that season (instead of the $100,000 that the $.10 would yield). Then they can save and/or invest as they see fit and take advantage of current value of the money and the studio and producers can save the administrative cost of tracking residuals. This is just a wild example and would become part of an already complex contract structure.

Hey, actors (represented by SAG or Screen Actors Guild) have to be present to work on a project and so do Directors (represented by DGA). I could say the same about television and radio talent (AFTRA), but writers are much more venerable because their work can probably be disbursed to Vancouver. One striker commented that this was a union busting move by the producers and studios and I couldn't agree more.

 

Is DOG, The Bounty Hunter Racists?

Maybe, or maybe not, but when, oh when will parents learn.... Parents, if you try to challenge or come between your children about the men/women they are in love with, your children will most likely turn on you. This is a battle you probably can't win, so why alienate your children by trying?

Is ANYONE asking who taped and leaked this conversation or is it a given that his son did so because he was PISSED that his dad refused to accept his black girlfriend; I submit it was the latter.

If I understand correctly, this was a conversation between Dog and his son whom he wanted to break up with his black girlfriend because he was afraid she would be offended by some of the language they used when he brought the girlfriend around, and that she would in turn go crying to the press about him, right? Well, DOG, as an black person, I COMPLETELY understand what you were saying. I admonish other black people that potential employers are saying the same thing behind your back ("don't hire them, they'll sue you for descrimination") and it's hurting us all. I think many are way too sensitive regarding this word. It'll be a cold day in hell before I every give someone else's words that much power over me because they are just that, words. After all, hatred resides in a person's heart, it's there regardless of the words they use, or whether they smile in my face. I don't have time to be offended by someone's words, and I ESPECIALLY don't have time to be offended by those words used by someone who doesn't have malice in their heart (I don't know which category the DOG falls into).

Obviously, A&E will do what is needed to keep their advertisers happy and I hope the DOG learns an important life lesson from this; If you consider it private, keep it private, because any and everything you do (especially if you're in the spotlight) has the potential to be exposed at some point. Trust no one, ESPECIALLY not a child who you're trying to come between them and the "love" of their life.